Toronto Market Update: November Sales, Prices, and Inventory

by Joanna Gerber

November saw Toronto’s housing market regain some momentum, with sales improving, but with some complexities.

Home Sales Show Gains

Seasonally adjusted home sales in Toronto rose by 1.9% month-over-month (m/m) in November. However, October’s figures were revised downward by 1%, making November’s gains appear slightly stronger than they truly were. Despite this adjustment, sales remain up by an impressive 39% compared to November last year. Detached home sales in the 416 area showed particularly robust growth, nearly 50% higher year-over-year (y/y).

Over the past two months, the sales trend has shown notable improvements in both the condo and single-family home segments. However, demand overall remains subdued compared to the historical averages from the past decade, though conditions have improved since the summer.

Two graphs: Left shows Toronto monthly home sales (2010-2024) with fluctuations; right shows monthly percent change in home sales (Apr 2012-Oct 2024) with varied increases and decreases.

Bar chart showing year-over-year changes in Toronto home sales: total, 416 condos, 905 condos, 416 detached, 905 detached, with the highest increase in 416 detached.

Source: Edge Realty Analytics

New Listings Rise

New listings across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) rose by 4.4% m/m and 10% y/y in November, making it the busiest November for new listings since 2017. According to an Edge Realty Analytics report, as sales gradually recover, there remains uncertainty regarding how much new supply will enter the market. Elevated supply could temper typical price growth that might otherwise result from increasing sales. The report anticipates that listing levels will remain above average through 2025.

Bar chart showing year-over-year change in active listings in Toronto. Total, 905 condos, and 416 detached listings increased about 35%, while 416 condos and 905 detached increased around 24-32%.

Source: Edge Realty Analytics

Inventory

Active listings in the GTA were up 30% y/y. After reaching 15-year highs in inventory in September and October, single-family home supply dipped slightly below 2017 levels in November. The condo segment continues to face record-high inventory levels.

Market Conditions

Supply outpaced sales in November, leading to a weakening in market balance, as noted in the report. The sales-to-new-listings ratio slipped to 43% from 45% in the prior month, keeping it close to historic lows.

Graph of Toronto's seasonally adjusted sales-to-new listings ratio from 2000 to 2024, showing fluctuations with peaks around 2010 and 2020, and a notable decline in 2023.

Source: Edge Realty Analytics

Despite this, months of inventory showed slight improvement, dropping below 2023 levels for both condos and single-family homes.

Bar charts showing Toronto's MOI for single-family homes and condos in November from 2007 to 2023. Single-family MOI peaks in 2008; condo MOI peaks in 2018. Both dip in 2021 and rise by 2023.

Source: Edge Realty Analytics

Prices See Mixed Movement

The MLS House Price Index recorded an 0.8% m/m increase in November, marking the strongest monthly rise since mid-2022; however, seasonally adjusted average prices fell by 0.6% m/m. This is notable, given the supply and demand balance, and should be monitored, according to the report.

Housing Starts Decline

Housing starts in the GTA dropped significantly, down 33% y/y in October across all housing types. As of now, there are approximately 102,000 dwellings under construction across the GTA. If housing starts continue to slow while project completions accelerate, the total number of dwellings in the pipeline is likely to decrease. Nearly 75% of the units under construction are condos, indicating that the condo market will likely remain well-supplied through 2025 and into 2026.