The latest economic update for the week of June 18-23, 2024

by Ali Bolourchi

Here is the latest economic update for the week of June 18-23, 2024, including key economic facts and a focus on Toronto, Ontario, and Canada, with an emphasis on real estate.

US Economic Indicators:

US 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.43% 🔼
10YT Minus 2YT Spread: -0.46% 🔻
US 30-Year Fixed-Rate: 6.85% ━
US Prime Rate: 8.50% ━
SOFR: 5.33% ━
US Inflation: 3.3% ━
USD/CAD Exchange Rate: $1USD = $1.36CAD 🔻
S&P 500: $5,473.17 🔼
Gold: $2,368 🔼
Lumber: $493 🔻
Crude: $74.53 🔻
Gasoline USD/Gal: $2.36 🔻
Global Container Freight Index: $3,487 🔼
Bitcoin: $70,976 🔼
Ethereum: $3,857 🔼
Luxury Watch Index: $33,209 🔻

Canada

GDP Growth: The GDP growth for Q1 2024 was 1%, with the Bank of Canada maintaining a cautious outlook for potential rate cuts later this year (FinViz).
Inflation: Projected to stay around 3% in Q2 2024 and ease below 2.5% in the latter half of the year (Bank of Canada).
Interest Rates: The policy interest rate was reduced by 25 basis points to 4.75% (Bank of Canada).
Employment: The national unemployment rate stands at 6.7%, a slight decrease from the previous month (Job Bank).
Canada Prime Rate: 6.95% 🔻

Ontario

Unemployment and Job Market:
- The unemployment rate in Ontario is 6.7%. Employment trends vary by sector:
  - Manufacturing: Employment decreased by 1.7%.
  - Transportation and Warehousing: Employment dropped by 4.1%.
  - Healthcare and Social Assistance: Employment increased by 2.4%, driven by new healthcare facilities and provincial investments (Job Bank).

Toronto

Employment:
- The Toronto economic region saw a 1.8% increase in employment year-over-year, adding 66,900 jobs from May 2023 to May 2024. However, the unemployment rate rose to 7.9%, up 2.1 percentage points from the previous year (Job Bank).
Real Estate and Construction:
- Toronto's real estate sector remains robust with ongoing construction projects and new housing developments. The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada is expected to positively influence mortgage rates and the housing market (FinViz).

Real Estate Market Insights

Toronto:
- Housing Market: The real estate market in Toronto continues to grow, supported by significant developments and new housing projects. The rate cut by the Bank of Canada is anticipated to lower mortgage rates, making housing more accessible (Bank of Canada) (FinViz).
- Commercial and Investment: Toronto remains a prime location for commercial and investment properties, with ongoing urban development and infrastructural improvements.
Ontario:
- Regional Variations: While Toronto experiences high unemployment, regions like Stratford–Bruce Peninsula have significantly lower rates. Employment in sectors like healthcare is increasing, indicating a strong demand for specialized services (Job Bank).

Summary

The economic indicators for the week of June 18-23, 2024, reflect a dynamic landscape with mixed trends across different sectors. While the US economy shows stable growth and controlled inflation, Canada's focus on reducing interest rates aims to support economic stability. Toronto's real estate market remains strong, bolstered by ongoing construction and housing developments.