TRREB forecasts 2024 as start of multi-year housing recovery in GTA

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) released its projections for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market in the 2024 Market Outlook and Year in Review report and interactive digital digest.

The report covers various aspects of the GTA real estate market, including emerging trends in new homes and condos, along with an assessment of the commercial sector.

It incorporates Ipsos consumer polling data, revealing insights into 2024 home buying and selling intentions, alongside TRREB’s analysis of home sales, new listings, average prices and market drivers like interest rates, population growth and employment.

2024: The start of a “multi-year recovery”

TRREB’s chief market analyst, Jason Mercer, weighs in: “Demand for ownership housing in the GTA will start improving in 2024. Record population growth, a resilient economy, low unemployment and declining mortgage rates in the second half of the year will result in increased home sales compared to 2023.

This will be the start of a multi-year recovery as some households will still face affordability challenges, even as borrowing costs begin trending lower. As the demand for housing picks up, it will be equally important to see a rebound in the supply of homes for sale and an uptick in new home construction.”

Key market outlook highlights

Projections indicate a total of 77,000 home sales for the year. The average selling price is forecasted to reach $1,170,000 across all home types, positioning as the second-highest recorded, yet remaining below the peak observed in early 2022.

As well, Ipsos data suggests a consistent overall interest in home purchases compared to the previous year, with 28 per cent of respondents considering buying a home in 2024. However, the proportion of respondents expressing a high likelihood to purchase has slightly decreased, underscoring lingering uncertainty among potential buyers.

The percentage of homeowners likely to list their properties for sale in 2024 decreased by 2 per cent compared to 2023, highlighting ongoing challenges in listing inventory availability amid rising demand.

In addition, the report delves into the repercussions of the housing crisis on residents’ mental and physical well-being, emphasizing the urgent need for increased housing supply to accommodate the record population growth driven by immigration.

Call to end “band-aid solutions that result in larger issues than the problems they attempt to solve”

TRREB president Jennifer Pearce emphasized the necessity for proactive planning and streamlined processes to address housing affordability and supply issues effectively: “In the wake of a growing population, policymakers cannot lose sight of planning ahead, and avoid applying band-aid solutions that often result in larger issues than the problems they are attempting to solve.”

Echoing Pearce’s sentiments, TRREB CEO John DiMichele stressed the urgency of accelerating housing supply and providing support for first-time homebuyers through measures such as relief on upfront land transfer taxes.

“Prioritizing “missing middle” housing will provide more diverse and affordable housing options – something we have long called for. All levels of government need to work together and ensure the right incentives are in place for developers to build more housing across the spectrum,” says DiMichele.

Read the full report here.