Ottawa’s real estate market sees healthy growth despite market shifts: OREB

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) recently reported that Ottawa’s “population-adjusted construction is at its lowest level in nearly 10 years.” A City of Ottawa progress report shows that Ottawa is only at 22 per cent of its annual housing target at the end of August.  

The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) reported a healthy increase in home sales for September, with 1,047 units — a rise of 11.4 per cent from the same time in 2023. However, sales remain below historical averages, coming in 17.4 per cent below the five-year average and 15.4 per cent below the 10-year average for September.

Year-to-date, home sales reached 10,485 units, representing a 6.4 per cent increase compared to September 2023.

Healthy fall outlook with chronic supply issue — ‘not building enough of the right homes to address the ‘missing middle’’

“As we navigate a shifting housing market, Ottawa’s fall outlook is healthy,” says OREB president Curtis Fillier. “Activity is robust with an uptick in sales and prices remaining steady. Meanwhile, both buyers and sellers are rethinking their purchasing power amid news about additional interest rate cuts on the horizon, longer amortizations and increased price caps for insured mortgages.”

Fillier goes on to explain that recent policy developments to stimulate demand have been encouraging, though the Ottawa market doesn’t typically experience issues with demand. Rather, “We have chronic supply issues,” he notes. “We’re not building enough homes in the city, and we’re not building enough of the right homes to address the ‘missing middle.’”  

Price trends

The overall MLS Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price for September was $642,800, a slight increase of 0.2 per cent from September 2023.

Single-family homes saw a benchmark price of $729,000, up 0.5 per cent year-over-year, townhouses/row units experienced a 1.7 per cent decline with a benchmark price of $500,000 and apartments had a benchmark price of $414,200, down 1.3 per cent year-over-year.

Inventory and new listings

September’s new listings totalled 2,343 units, a 3.9 per cent increase from the year prior. This was 4.7 per cent above the five-year average and 11.6 per cent higher than the 10-year average.

Active listings rose to 3,529 units, marking a 16.9 per cent year-over-year increase and sitting 43.3 per cent above the five-year average. Months of inventory rose slightly to 3.4 months, up from 3.2 months in September 2023, indicating a slightly more balanced market.

Review the full report here.