Ontario Quarterly Market Overview: Q1 2024

According to a recent Edge Realty report, as of the first quarter of 2024, Ontario has been experiencing mixed trends this quarter, with some metrics showing a change in direction from the year-over-year trends.

Sales

In the first quarter of 2024, the real estate market in Ontario saw a significant rise in sales activity. Sales increased by 12.4% quarter-over-quarter. Furthermore, year-over-year, sales also rose by 6.8%.

Listings

The number of new listings in Ontario’s real estate market experienced a decline of 3.8% in the first quarter of 2024 from the previous quarter. Despite this quarterly decrease, however, the year-over-year comparison shows an opposite trend, with a substantial increase of 29.7% in new listings. 

Active listings, or the total number of homes available for sale, showed a similar pattern. There was a slight decrease of 3.7% quarter-over-quarter, with a more substantial increase of 24.8% in active listings year-over-year. 

Prices

Home prices in Ontario saw a modest increase of 0.5% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter. On a year-over-year basis, however, prices declined slightly by 0.7%. 

Under Construction

The number of homes under construction decreased in the first quarter of 2024 by 2.6% from the last quarter of 2023. However, there was a slight year-over-year increase of 0.4% in under-construction properties. 

Months of Inventory

The months of inventory, which indicates how long it is expected that it would take to sell all current listings given the current sales pace, decreased from 3.2 months in Q4 2023 to 3.1 months in Q1 2024. 

Sales-to-New Listings Ratio

The sales-to-new listings ratio dropped from 52.2% in Q4 2023 to 48.7% in Q1 2024. This means the rate of new listings started to outpace the rate of sales in the latest quarter.

Other Economic Indicators

Population

Ontario’s population grew by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024, and by 3.5% year-over-year. Ontario projects growth to continue, but that the rate should start slowing after 2024/25.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate in Ontario increased from 6.3% in Q4 2023 to 6.7% in Q1 2024. For comparison, Canada’s unemployment rate was 6.1% in April 2024.

Mortgage Arrears

The rate of mortgage arrears in Ontario edged up slightly from 0.11% to 0.13% between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Although this is only a slight rise in this indicator of financial distress among homeowners, this is a Canada-wide trend this quarter.