Bank of Canada lowers interest rate again: What this means for the housing market

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada lowered its overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, the second consecutive rate cut this year.

The Bank says that growth in the Canadian economy has picked up but is still below long-term potential and that our economy’s weakness is across both household consumption and the housing market, with the labour market softening.

Although the Bank expects growth to increase later this year and into 2025, it notes that excess supply will continue to put downward pressure on inflation.

Sidelined buyers may return to many options, activity should pick up in the fall

Karen Yolevski, COO of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd., weighs in: “Our research shows that many buyer hopefuls have been waiting for a concrete signal from the Bank of Canada that the economy is moving in the right direction. A second cut to the overnight lending rate indicates just that, and with mortgage qualification thresholds continuing to come down, sidelined buyers may have the confidence they need to make their return to the housing market.

We expect this will prompt a slight boost in activity in the short term, followed by more robust buyer demand in the fall. In the meantime, some much-needed inventory has been building in major markets over the last few months, giving buyers more options to choose from. In addition to lower rates, this may also encourage more buyers to re-enter the market in the near future.”

More than rate cuts needed for sales recovery

Zoocasa points out that following June’s rate cut, home sales didn’t recover as many expected — with non-seasonally-adjusted national sales down by 10.9 per cent from May to June and GTA and Metro Vancouver sales down by more than 10 per cent.

As well, the Canadian Real Estate Association adjusted its annual housing market forecast to 6.2 per cent growth from its original 10.5 per cent in April. This is reflected in excess inventory levels the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reports, with active listings up 67.4 per cent year-over-year in June.

This may not be surprising, given that a recent survey reports 42.3 per cent of respondents note home prices being their main concern about buying in today’s market, with interest rates (25.6 per cent) and economic uncertainty (14.9 per cent) following.

Christopher Alexander, president, Re/Max Canada, seems to agree: “The Bank of Canada’s decision to decrease its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point is welcome news for Canadian homebuyers who are still contending with a high cost of living and higher interest rates than we’ve seen in a long time.

We’ll likely need to see interest rates come down further for the housing market to kick into high gear again, but if they continue trending downward, there’s a possibility of a more active fall market.”

Good news for commercial real estate

Avison Young’s Mark Fieder, principal and president, Canada, notes that the rate drop will positively impact investor sentiment.

“Commercial real estate (CRE) return metrics are improving compared to other asset classes, and we expect this will further fuel investor appetite and capital allocation into CRE,” he says.

“We have been in a very uncertain interest rate environment over the last two years. This second rate drop certainly shows the Bank’s confidence in the inflation data and reinforces the fact that we are finally shifting into a different interest rate regime.”