Affordable no more? Average condo prices could reach $1M in next decade

by REM Editorial Team

In the coming decade, average condo prices in some of Canada’s largest cities—including Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax—are expected to cross the $1-million mark.

While condos have long been viewed as the most accessible entry point to the housing market, data analysis from Zoocasa suggests that this affordability advantage may be slipping away.

Ontario dominates the forecast

According to Zoocasa’s projections, Ontario will account for the majority of these high-priced markets, including cities like Toronto, London and Hamilton. The Atlantic region is also showing notable growth, with Halifax positioned to join the ranks of million-dollar markets by 2031.

Traditionally viewed as more affordable than Ontario or British Columbia, Halifax’s rapid price increases reflect heightened demand, a limited inventory and a growing population.

Source: Zoocasa

The methodology

The company’s forecast relies on data from CREA, using the average annual growth rate in median condo prices from 2019 to 2024 as the basis for projections. This growth rate is applied yearly to the most recent price, with each subsequent year’s price forming the base for the next calculation. This method assumes that recent trends, including economic conditions and market demand, will continue at a steady pace.

For example, Halifax condo prices grew by 68.4 per cent over five years, increasing from $247,608 in 2019 to $462,650 in October 2024—an average of 13.68 per cent annually. Using this trajectory, Zoocasa forecasts that Halifax condos will average over $1- million by 2031.

Urban centers lead the charge

Toronto and Vancouver, Canada’s perennial housing market leaders, are expected to hit the $1-million average even sooner. Vancouver is projected to reach this milestone by 2030, while Toronto is expected to follow in 2031.

Between 2019 and 2024, Toronto’s average condo price rose from $504,758 to $671,980, representing a 33 per cent increase. Meanwhile, Vancouver’s condo prices increased by 27 per cent over the same period, climbing from $605,950 to $768,780.

Longer timelines in other markets

While many urban centers are on track to hit the $1-million milestone within 10 to 20 years, some regions have a longer road ahead. For example:

Calgary: With a strong job market and population growth, Calgary is forecasted to reach $1-million by 2041.
Saskatoon: This prairie city is expected to achieve the milestone by 2046, reflecting steady but slower growth.
Regina and Winnipeg: These markets have the longest timelines, with projections extending to 2085 and 2081, respectively.