The Canadian housing market saw a significant increase in new listings in January 2025, offering more choices for homebuyers. However, this positive trend is being met with uncertainty due to potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, which could impact construction costs and home affordability.

Let’s dive into the key market trends and what they mean for buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals.

1. Surge in New Listings: A Buyer’s Market?

January saw a double-digit increase in new property listings compared to the previous month. More listings generally mean a balanced market, giving buyers better negotiating power.

Here’s a look at the trend in new listings over the past few months:

New Property Listings in Canada (Oct 2024 - Jan 2025)

The chart above shows a significant increase in new listings in January 2025, which suggests a potential shift toward a buyer’s market.

2. U.S. Tariff Uncertainty and Its Impact on Housing Costs

While more listings are good news, the Canadian real estate market faces a new challenge—potential U.S. tariffs. The U.S. administration has proposed tariffs of up to 25% on Canadian goods, which could have a direct impact on:

• Construction Costs: Higher lumber and material costs may lead to increased home prices.

• Builder Activity: Developers may slow down projects due to uncertainty.

• Home Affordability: Rising costs could offset the benefits of more listings.

Here's a visual of the potential impact on construction costs.

Projected Increase in Construction Costs Due to Tariffs

The chart above highlights the projected cost increases in lumber, steel, and concrete, which could raise overall construction expenses by 12% or more. This means new home builds may become more expensive, affecting both buyers and developers.

3. Bank of Canada’s Response: Interest Rate Cuts

In response to economic uncertainty, the Bank of Canada has lowered interest rates to 3%, aiming to stimulate borrowing and economic activity. This move is meant to:

✅ Encourage home buying by reducing mortgage rates
✅ Offset rising costs from tariffs
✅ Support economic growth amid trade uncertainties

Interest Rate Trends (2024 - 2025)

The chart above shows a steady decline in interest rates, with a significant drop to 3% in January 2025. Lower rates can make mortgages more affordable, but inflationary pressures from tariffs could complicate things.

What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

📌 For Buyers:

• More listings mean better selection and potential price stabilization.

• Lower interest rates make mortgages more affordable.

• However, if construction costs rise, new home prices could increase.

📌 For Sellers:

• More listings mean higher competition, so pricing strategically is key.

• If tariffs slow down new construction, existing homes may hold value better.

• Buyers are still active, but affordability concerns could impact demand.

Final Thoughts

The Canadian real estate market is experiencing both opportunities and risks in early 2025. While more listings and lower interest rates create a favorable environment for buyers, potential U.S. tariffs could disrupt market stability. Staying informed and working with experienced real estate professionals will be crucial in navigating these changing conditions.

📢 Are you looking to buy or sell?
Let’s chat! I can help you make the right real estate moves in this evolving market. 🚀

Saint John, New Brunswick (Canva) 

Something has shifted in Canada’s housing market. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, given something has certainly shifted at a global geopolitically level. You might even call it a “tarrifying” headwind for Canada’s real estate market. 

For years, supply was tight, and homebuyers outnumbered sellers in Canada’s real estate market. But as 2025 begins, the landscape looks strikingly different. New listings are pouring into the market at an extraordinary pace, while sales are faltering under the weight of mounting economic uncertainty. 

As is tradition, when facing an unknown future, Canada’s real estate market has decided to hit the “pause button.” It is not uncommon to see the market take a breath when we’re facing a historic election, a pandemic or a changing economy. Today’s trade war is no different.

Compounding the turbulence, President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canadian exports loom over key industries, raising concerns about potential job losses, wage stagnation, and the broader impact on housing demand. Though the Canadian-specific targeting has been temporarily postponed, Trump’s global target on steel and aluminum has Canada written all over it.

A historic surge in listings, a slowdown in sales

For buyers willing to stomach the risk, this could be the window of opportunity they’ve been waiting for—more choices and lower interest rates make financing more attractive. But for sellers, it’s a wake-up call. A market that once favoured them is now shifting toward balance—or even softness in some areas. Yet, the full impact of these shifting dynamics remains uncertain, as much depends on the outcome of the postponed tariffs and their potential ripple effects across the economy.

CREA’s January market data gives us a clearer picture of what’s ahead. Let’s break it down.

Unprecedented inventory growth

One of the biggest surprises of early 2025 has been the flood of new listings. Figures for January reveal that new supply jumped 11 per cent compared to December 2024—the largest seasonally adjusted increase since the late 1980s (excluding pandemic-era fluctuations).

What does this mean? It’s a clear sign that more homeowners are choosing to sell, possibly in anticipation of weaker market conditions. In high-priced regions like British Columbia and Ontario, where supply had been tightening in 2024, this sudden increase in listings is cooling price pressures and shifting negotiating power back toward buyers.

Sales take a hit amid economic jitters

While inventory rose, sales did not follow suit. Instead, national home sales fell 3.3 per cent month-over-month, with the most dramatic drop occurring in the last week of January. The timing suggests that buyers pulled back due to growing concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, which many fear could destabilize Canada’s economy.

However, it’s not all bad news. Compared to January 2024, actual sales were up 2.9 per cent, meaning demand is still present—just hesitant. Buyers aren’t disappearing, but they are waiting to see where the economy lands before making big moves.

Prices hold their ground—for now

Despite rising inventory and weaker sales, home prices have remained surprisingly stable:

• The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) barely changed month-over-month (-0.08 per cent) and year-over-year (+0.07 per cent).

• The national average home price hit $670,064, up 1.1 per cent from January 2024.

But not all regions are experiencing the same trends:

• British Columbia and Ontario: A surge in supply is creating a softer pricing environment, making these regions more favourable for buyers.

• Alberta and Saskatchewan: With inventories at near 20-year lows, prices continue to rise despite economic uncertainty.

• Quebec and Atlantic Canada: These markets are expected to see both price and sales growth in 2025, making them the country’s most balanced housing sectors.

The big unknown

A game-changer for the Canadian economy

Just as Canada’s housing market was poised for recovery, a new storm appeared on the horizon: Trump’s tariff policy for Canada.

The U.S. government has proposed a 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian non-energy exports and a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy exports, though implementation has been postponed by 30 days. If implemented, this policy shift could disrupt key industries, hamper trade and increase the risk of an economic downturn.

Some cities will feel the effects more than others. New research from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab has identified the regions most vulnerable to these tariffs. The most exposed markets are:

• Saint John: Due to its heavy dependence on crude oil exports from the Irving Oil Refinery.

• Calgary: A major energy hub exporting crude oil, natural gas, and beef.

• Southwestern Ontario (Windsor, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford, Guelph): These cities are deeply tied to the auto and manufacturing industries, which rely heavily on cross-border trade with the U.S.

• Hamilton, Ontario: As Canada’s steel capital, Hamilton’s economy is at risk if tariffs disrupt steel exports.

• Quebec’s aluminum and forestry hubs (Saguenay, Trois-Rivieres, Drummondville): Key exporters of aluminum and forestry products.

If these industries slow down, it could impact jobs, wages, and housing demand in these cities. Simply put, these tariffs could mean fewer buyers in affected regions, leading to longer selling times and price stagnation or declines.

The table below, from the same research, provides a detailed ranking of Canadian cities most vulnerable to the proposed U.S. tariffs.

What’s next?

The spring rebound is coming—but will it be enough?

Despite economic concerns, CREA still expects a strong spring market, driven by lower borrowing costs (mortgage rates are falling, drawing more buyers into the market) and pent-up demand (many buyers have been waiting for prices to stabilize before re-entering).

According to CREA, an estimated 532,704 homes will sell in 2025, an 8.6 per cent increase from 2024. Prices are expected to rise 4.7 per cent this year, reaching $722,221 by year-end.

Not every market will recover equally

• British Columbia & Ontario: Sales should rebound, but higher inventory will keep prices in check.

• Alberta & Saskatchewan: With sales already near record highs in 2024 and inventory at 20-year lows, prices in these provinces are expected to climb faster than sales.

• Quebec & Atlantic Canada: Predicted to see both price and sales growth.

What Realtors need to consider

For buyers

• More listings, more choices – Buyers finally have leverage in many regions.

• Lock in rates now – Mortgage rates are dropping, and delaying could cost more in the long run.

• Watch the economy – If tariffs cause widespread job losses, it could create a buyer’s market later in the year.

For sellers

• More competition means smarter pricing – Overpricing will lead to stagnation, especially in high-inventory regions.

• Consider selling before a potential slowdown – If economic fears grow, waiting could mean a tougher market.

• Regional differences matter – Some markets (like Alberta) still favour sellers, while others (Ontario) are shifting toward buyers.

Final thoughts: A market on the edge

The Canadian housing market in 2025 is no longer a one-way street. Buyers and sellers must adapt to new realities, from shifting supply-demand dynamics to the potential fallout of a major trade war.

For some, this year will bring opportunity; for others, waiting may be the preferred choice.

How the market unfolds will depend on a delicate balance of forces—interest rates, inventory levels, and the broader economic impact of U.S. trade policies. While the housing sector has shown resilience before, this time, the uncertainty runs deeper, and its effects may take longer to play out.

The Canadian housing market finds itself at a critical juncture in 2025, as the threat of U.S. tariffs adds uncertainty to an already delicate economic environment. 

According to RBC Economics, “the significant risk that tariffs pose to Canada’s economy casts a potentially dark shadow over the housing market.” With consumer confidence playing a pivotal role, potential economic turbulence could unsettle both buyers and sellers.

Robert Hogue, assistant chief economist at RBC, likened the housing outlook to “putting a price on a home before an earthquake—it’s hard to know what shape the structure will be in at the end of the day.” While the U.S. administration paused the implementation of blanket tariffs earlier this month, Hogue suggests the introduction of targeted measures, such as a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports means that trade tensions aren’t going away anytime soon.

Lower interest rates 

Aside from looming economic risks, some bright spots are emerging for Canada’s housing market. RBC predicts a recovery in 2025, fueled largely by declining interest rates. Lower borrowing costs are expected to unlock pent-up demand and reduce ownership expenses, bringing much-needed momentum into the market.

Buyers will also benefit from an increasing inventory of homes for sale. “These dynamics were set in motion in the second half of 2024 and have longer to run in the year ahead as we expect interest rates to fall further,” Hogue notes. Mortgage insurance rule changes, introduced in December, are also expected to bring more first-time homebuyers to the market.

Affordability, immigration cuts and tariff risks

Perhaps unsurprisingly, affordability challenges remain a hurdle. While lower rates provide some relief, RBC warns that “strained affordability—despite easing somewhat—will continue to limit buyers’ capacity or willingness to bid up prices aggressively.”

Compounding uncertainty is a sharp slowdown in immigration, as the federal government scales back annual targets. Population growth, a key driver of housing demand, is projected to decline substantially, and will likely “temper upward price pressure.”

The potential for U.S. tariffs adds another layer of complexity. Sectors heavily reliant on exports, such as manufacturing and natural resources, could face significant job losses, disproportionately affecting specific regions. In such a scenario, market confidence could take a hit. 

However, RBC suggests that “ if a severe downturn prompts the Bank of Canada to implement deeper interest rate cuts, it could stimulate housing demand by making borrowing more affordable. The interplay between these forces—economic risk versus monetary stimulus—will be a key factor to watch in 2025.”

A return to normalcy for sales and prices

Barring a major economic shock, RBC forecasts a 12 per cent increase in national home resales in 2025, reaching 551,000 units—marking a return to “more normal levels of activity—about 7 per cent above the average during the five years preceding the pandemic.”

Property values, however, are expected to see minimal growth, with the average home price projected to rise 1.4 per cent this year. This modest price appreciation reflects a balanced market, with demand and supply largely offsetting each other.

RBC’s regional market outlook

British Columbia
Resales are expected to rebound 16.5 per cent, but affordability issues will limit price gains to 0.9 per cent.

Alberta
Strong momentum continues, with resales forecasted to rise 4.8 per cent and prices climbing 4.1 per cent.

Saskatchewan
Solid momentum persists, with resales projected to climb 6.7 per cent to 14,400 units, while prices are expected to rise 2.9 per cent to $370,200.

Manitoba
The market continues its recovery, with resales forecasted to grow 8.9 per cent to 17,200 units and prices appreciating 3.1 per cent.

Ontario
A bumpy recovery path is anticipated, with resales up 12.9 per cent, while prices are projected to increase by a muted 0.9 per cent.

Quebec
A strong rebound is underway, with resales forecasted to rise 17.3 per cent, following a 19.1 per cent surge in 2024. Prices are expected to increase 3.9 per cent, making Quebec one of the stronger performers among provincial markets.

Atlantic Canada
A broad-based rebound in activity is expected, with resales forecasted to grow 10.5 per cent in New Brunswick, 11.7 per cent in Nova Scotia, 5 per cent in Prince Edward Island, and 3.5 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador. Price appreciation is projected to range from 1.5 per cent in PEI to 4.1 per cent in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Toronto’s embattled condo market

Toronto’s condo market, as we’ve heard, faces near-term challenges or “price softness,” as Hogue describes it. A surge in new completions, coupled with waning investor demand, could temporarily weigh on prices in highly saturated areas. Hogue predicts that “lower interest rates may eventually provide support, but the influx of units could create headwinds before broader market conditions stabilize.”

The mortgage renewal payment shock

Hogue expects a lingering concern for many homeowners in 2025 will be the financial strain associated with mortgage renewals. Borrowers who locked in ultra-low rates during 2020-2021 are likely to face significant payment increases at renewal, even as interest rates decline.

“This could force some owners to sell, adding to inventory and tempering price growth,” the economist explains. “However, Canada’s stringent mortgage stress test rules should help prevent a surge in distressed sales, keeping market imbalances generally in check.”

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has once again become a critical topic for economists, investors, and homebuyers alike. A recent report from the Financial Post highlights that a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation rate is raising concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next moves, potentially delaying anticipated rate cuts or, in a more extreme scenario, even leading to further hikes.

For Canadians, particularly those involved in the real estate market, the implications of U.S. monetary policy extend far beyond American borders. The Bank of Canada often aligns its interest rate decisions with economic trends in the U.S., meaning that any shift in the Fed’s approach could significantly impact mortgage rates, home prices, and overall market activity here at home.

Why Are Interest Rates So Important?

Interest rates are a fundamental driver of real estate activity because they determine the cost of borrowing. Higher rates mean higher mortgage payments, reducing affordability for buyers and often cooling housing demand. On the flip side, lower rates make borrowing more attractive, stimulating home purchases and driving property values upward.

Over the past two years, both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. While the Bank of Canada recently held its benchmark rate steady at 5%, many market participants were expecting cuts as early as mid-2024. However, new data out of the U.S. suggests that inflation remains stubbornly high, raising concerns that rates might stay elevated for longer than anticipated.

Some analysts are now even speculating about the possibility of another rate hike in the U.S., which could pressure the Bank of Canada to reconsider its strategy.

How Could This Affect the Canadian Real Estate Market?

If the Fed holds rates higher for longer, or even raises them again, the Bank of Canada may need to follow suit to maintain currency stability and manage inflation. This could have several direct and indirect effects on the Canadian housing market:

1. Higher-for-Longer Mortgage Rates

Many buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, have been waiting for interest rates to come down to improve affordability. However, if rate cuts are delayed or reversed, mortgage rates will likely stay elevated, keeping monthly payments high and potentially pricing some buyers out of the market.

For example, a homebuyer looking to secure a $700,000 mortgage at a 5.5% interest rate today would pay significantly more per month compared to someone who secured the same loan at 2.5% in 2021. Prolonged high rates could discourage new buyers from entering the market, leading to slower sales activity.

2. Continued Pressure on Home Prices

Although Canadian home prices have shown some signs of stabilization, prolonged high interest rates could weigh on demand, keeping price growth subdued or even triggering price declines in certain markets. Sellers looking to offload properties may need to adjust their expectations and be more flexible with pricing to attract buyers.

Luxury properties and investment-driven markets such as pre-construction condos, may be particularly sensitive to borrowing costs, as these segments often rely on leveraged investments.

3. Investment Uncertainty

For real estate investors, higher borrowing costs could impact profitability. Those who rely on financing to purchase rental properties will face higher mortgage payments, potentially reducing cash flow from rental income. This may lead to some investors postponing purchases or shifting strategies toward cash-heavy deals.

However, uncertainty also creates opportunities. Investors with strong capital positions may find favorable deals, especially if prices soften and some sellers need to offload properties quickly.

4. Stronger Canadian Dollar Could Impact Foreign Buyers

If the Bank of Canada keeps its rates in line with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Canadian dollar could strengthen against the U.S. dollar. While a stronger loonie may benefit importers, it could make Canadian real estate less attractive for foreign buyers, who often take advantage of currency fluctuations when investing in markets like Toronto and Vancouver.

What Should Buyers, Sellers, and Investors Do Now?

With uncertainty surrounding interest rates, it’s crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy for navigating the real estate market.

For Buyers:

- Be realistic about affordability: If you’re waiting for rate cuts, be aware that they may take longer than expected. Consider locking in a competitive fixed-rate mortgage if you find the right property.

- Consider alternative financing options: Work with mortgage brokers to explore rate buy-downs, extended amortization periods, or hybrid mortgage structures.

- Focus on long-term value: Rather than timing the market, focus on properties with strong fundamentals in desirable locations.

For Sellers:

- Price strategically: Overpricing in a high-interest rate environment can lead to prolonged market exposure and potential price reductions. Work with a knowledgeable real estate professional to set a competitive asking price.

- Highlight affordability incentives: Offering buyer incentives, such as covering closing costs or helping with mortgage rate buy-downs, can attract more interest.

- Be patient but proactive: The market may take longer to absorb listings, so flexibility with negotiations can be key.

For Investors:

- Look for distressed sales: Higher borrowing costs may force some sellers to offload properties at a discount. Keep an eye on motivated sellers and off-market opportunities.

- Prioritize cash flow: In a higher-rate environment, focus on rental properties that generate strong cash flow rather than relying on appreciation.

- Diversify your portfolio: Consider different asset classes, such as commercial properties or multi-family units, which may offer better returns than single-family homes in certain areas.

Final Thoughts

While the U.S. inflation report has cast doubt on the timing of rate cuts, real estate remains a long-term investment. Markets are cyclical, and interest rates will eventually decline, but when and by how much remains uncertain.

For buyers, sellers, and investors in the Greater Toronto Area and beyond, the key to success lies in staying informed, being flexible, and working with experienced real estate professionals who understand the evolving market conditions.

Need guidance on your next real estate move? Contact Ali Bolourchi and his expert team today!

☎️ CALL US 416-886-2000

🌐 Visit us at GTALuxuryHomes.ca

Buying a power-of-sale property in Ontario can be an attractive option for many homebuyers, especially those looking for potentially below-market deals. However, it's important to understand both the advantages and disadvantages of purchasing a power-of-sale property to make an informed decision. Here's a breakdown of the pros and cons:

 Pros

1. Potential for Lower Price: Power-of-sale properties can sometimes be priced below market value to ensure a quick sale, presenting a good deal for buyers.

2. Quicker Possession: Since the lender is often motivated to sell quickly to recoup their loan amount, buyers might be able to take possession of the property sooner than with a traditional sale.

3. Clear Title: In Ontario, the power-of-sale process typically ensures that the property title is clear of any liens or encumbrances by the time of sale.

 Cons

1.  As-Is Condition: Power-of-sale properties are usually sold "as-is," meaning the buyer assumes all risk for any repairs or issues with the property. There may be no warranties or representations about the property's condition.

2.  Limited Information: Sellers (lenders) may have limited information about the property's condition and history since they have not lived there. This lack of disclosure can pose a risk to buyers.

3.  Competitive Market: These properties can attract a lot of attention, especially if priced well, leading to competitive bidding situations.

4.  Legal Complexities: The power-of-sale process can involve more legal complexities than a standard real estate transaction. It's crucial to have a knowledgeable real estate lawyer review all documents.

5.  Potential for Redemption: The original homeowners have a redemption period where they can reclaim their property by paying off the outstanding mortgage balance plus costs, potentially disrupting the sale.

 Additional Considerations

• Due Diligence: Buyers should conduct thorough due diligence, including a comprehensive home inspection and a review of any legal matters associated with the property. This helps uncover any potential issues that could affect the property's value or livability.

• Legal Advice: Given the unique nature of power-of-sale transactions, obtaining legal advice from a real estate lawyer experienced in these matters in Ontario is advisable. They can guide you through the process and help mitigate risks.

Here are some points considering this perspective:

• Reduced Financial Burden for the Seller: Buying the property early can help the owner avoid further debt accumulation. As interest and penalties continue to add up, intervening early by purchasing the property can halt this process, offering some financial relief to the seller.

• Beneficial for the Buyer: For buyers, stepping in early might provide room for negotiation directly with the seller before the property officially enters the power-of-sale process, which might lead to a better deal than if the property were sold through the formal power-of-sale process managed by the lender.

• Prevent Additional Costs: In a power-of-sale, lenders aim to recover the outstanding loan amount and any associated costs of selling the property. Buying early might help avoid some of these costs, potentially lowering the purchase price.

• Maintaining Property Condition: Properties under power-of-sale may not always be maintained properly as they may sit vacant for periods. Buying early can ensure the property is maintained, preserving its value.

• Positive Community Impact: Early intervention can also have a positive impact on the community by preventing properties from sitting vacant and potentially deteriorating, which can affect neighborhood property values.

• Avoiding the Stigma of Power-of-Sale: Properties sold under power-of-sale might carry a stigma that affects their value. Early purchase can avoid this, potentially making the property easier to sell in the future if needed.

It's essential for buyers considering this route to conduct thorough due diligence, including a comprehensive property inspection and a review of any legal matters associated with the property. Also, consulting with a knowledgeable real estate lawyer and a real estate professional experienced in power-of-sale properties in Ontario is crucial to navigate this process effectively.

Check a list of existing properties under the power-of-sale here!

Addressing the Potential for Power of Sale or
Foreclosure Due to Mortgage Delinquency

It is paramount for mortgage holders to maintain punctuality in their mortgage payments. However, unforeseen circumstances may occasionally impede one's ability to comply with these financial obligations. Should there be a foreseeable risk of failing to meet an upcoming mortgage installment, it is imperative that the mortgagor initiates communication with the mortgagee at the earliest opportunity to explore potential accommodations. It is often the case that lenders are prepared to provide assistance to ensure the mortgage remains in good standing amidst temporary financial adversities.

Mitigation Strategies for Power of Sale or Foreclosure in Toronto, Ontario

In instances where a mortgagor confronts the prospect of foreclosure or a power of sale, notably following the issuance of a notice of sale or a statement of claim by the lender, the primary recourse is to reinstate the mortgage to a state of good standing. This generally entails the settlement of the outstanding debt in full. Recognizing the challenges that may accompany the mobilization of significant funds under financial duress, one alternative may involve securing a secondary mortgage through a private lender to consolidate the total amount owed on the original mortgage. It is essential to acknowledge that the obligation to repay the second mortgage in its entirety remains.

An alternative strategy involves the preemptive sale of the property prior to the finalization of the power of sale process by the lender. While this approach results in the loss of the property, it affords the mortgagor the autonomy to dictate the sale's terms, address the outstanding claim, and arrange subsequent housing solutions.

Guidance and Decision-Making in the Context of Foreclosure or Power of Sale

Decisions surrounding foreclosure or the exercise of a power of sale should not be made in isolation. For individuals in Toronto facing such proceedings, the Mortgage Broker Store can provide comprehensive advice and support in evaluating available options.

A critical consideration in this decision-making process is the assessment of home equity. Should the property harbor significant equity, it is advantageous for the homeowner to pursue all avenues to avert foreclosure or power of sale. Conversely, if the debt surpasses the property's market value, attempting to forestall these proceedings may be futile.

For many, the equity in their home will fall within an intermediate range, necessitating a balanced evaluation of their situation.

Please let us know if you require help selling your house "AS IS".

The Ripple Effects of Trump’s Tariffs on Canadian Exports

Tariffs imposed on Canadian exports such as steel, aluminum, lumber, and other goods have far-reaching consequences on everyday life in Canada, particularly in Ontario, a major hub for manufacturing, trade, and real estate. While one might expect domestic prices to drop due to an oversupply when exports decline, in reality, several economic forces work together to drive prices higher. Below is a comprehensive breakdown of how these tariffs can affect various sectors and regions:

1. Higher Prices for Consumer Goods

• Mechanism:

  • Tariffs increase the cost of imported raw materials and finished goods.
  • Producers pass on these higher costs to consumers.

• Impacts:

  • Everyday Items: Appliances, vehicles, and construction materials become more expensive.
  • Groceries: Increased costs for packaging and transportation may lead to higher grocery prices.
  • Housing Costs: Renovations and new construction become costlier due to pricier lumber and steel.

2. Job Market and Employment

• Mechanism:

  • Ontario’s manufacturing sectors, especially automotive and steel, are closely tied to the U.S. market.
  • Tariffs disrupt supply chains and reduce export demand.

• Impacts:

  • Employment: Potential job losses or reduced working hours in manufacturing and export-driven industries.
  • Wages: Slower wage growth as companies face squeezed profit margins.
  • Regional Impact: Areas like Windsor and Oshawa, home to automotive plants, may be particularly vulnerable.

3. Housing Market

• Mechanism:

  • Tariffs on lumber and steel drive up construction costs.

• Impacts:

  • New Homes & Renovations: Higher costs make housing less affordable.
  • Rent: Landlords may pass on increased maintenance and repair costs through higher rents.
  • Supply: Reduced profitability can slow the growth of new housing developments.

4. Overall Cost of Living

• Mechanism:

  • Increased production costs due to tariffs contribute to inflation across the economy.

• Impacts:

  • Household Budgets: Higher prices for everyday expenses like groceries, gas, and utilities.
  • Disposable Income: Less money available for leisure activities, dining out, or travel.
  • Economic Stress: Particularly affects low- and middle-income families.

5. Business Environment

• Mechanism:

  • Cross-border trade uncertainty makes it challenging for businesses to plan and invest.

• Impacts:

  • SMEs: Small and medium-sized enterprises may struggle with higher costs.
  • Investment: Reduced investment in Ontario as operational expenses rise.
  • Closures: Businesses unable to adapt may be forced to close.

6. Real Estate Investment

• Mechanism:

  • A weaker Canadian dollar (CAD), a potential consequence of trade tensions, can alter investment dynamics.

• Impacts:

  • Luxury Market: Increased foreign investment in high-end properties, driving up prices.
  • Market Competition: More competition for first-time homebuyers as investors enter the market.
  • Market Segmentation: The real estate market may evolve into a two-tiered system, with luxury properties outperforming mid-range homes.

7. Government Response

• Mechanism:

  • In response to economic pressures, the government may introduce counteractive measures.

• Impacts:

  • Subsidies & Support: Increased spending to support affected industries.
  • Stimulus Measures: Potential tax cuts or stimulus packages to boost consumer spending.
  • Trade Diversification: Efforts to build stronger ties with Europe, Asia, or other markets may open up new opportunities.

8. Psychological and Social Effects

• Mechanism:

  • Economic uncertainty and rising costs have broader social implications.

• Impacts:

  • Mental Health: Increased stress and anxiety, especially among workers in vulnerable industries.
  • Consumer Behavior: Shifts in spending habits, with reduced expenditure on non-essential items.
  • Community Dynamics: Social tensions may arise as communities adjust to the economic changes.

Regional Impact on Ontario

• Toronto:

  • As Canada’s largest city and economic hub, Toronto will experience higher living costs, reduced consumer spending, and a more competitive real estate market.

• Windsor and Oshawa:

  • Cities with a strong reliance on automotive manufacturing may face significant job losses and economic slowdowns.

• Northern Ontario:

  • Communities dependent on industries like forestry and mining could see reduced economic activity due to lower export volumes.

Why Prices Don’t Drop Despite a Domestic Oversupply

At first glance, one might assume that tariffs on exports would result in a surplus of goods like steel and lumber in Canada, potentially lowering domestic prices. However, several factors counteract this:

1. High Production Costs: Producers must cover fixed and variable costs, even with increased domestic supply.
2. Reduced Economies of Scale: Lower production volumes lead to higher per-unit costs.
3. Export Diversion: Selling to alternative markets (Europe, Asia) often incurs higher transportation and logistical expenses.
4. Currency Depreciation: A weaker CAD raises the cost of imported inputs, increasing overall production costs.
5. Market Power: With fewer competitors, surviving producers can maintain or increase prices.
6. Speculative Behavior: Anticipation of further price increases can lead to stockpiling, artificially driving prices higher.

A Real-World Example: Lumber Tariffs

In 2017, when the U.S. imposed tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, several outcomes were observed:

• Production Adjustments: Canadian producers reduced output to avoid an oversupplied market.
• Transportation Costs: Diversifying exports to other markets increased overall costs.
• Domestic Demand: A surge in domestic construction projects further pushed up lumber prices.

Long-Term Outlook and Individual Actions

Long-Term Economic Adjustments

• Diversification: Ontario may accelerate efforts to diversify its economy and expand trade partnerships beyond the U.S.
• Innovation: Businesses might invest in automation and technology to mitigate higher costs.
• Policy Support: Government policies, such as tax relief or affordable housing initiatives, could help cushion the impact.

What Can Individuals Do?

• Budget Wisely: Prepare for higher costs by reducing discretionary spending and increasing savings.
• Invest in Skills: Upskill or retrain to stay competitive in an evolving job market.
• Stay Informed: Keep an eye on economic developments and government support programs.

Conclusion

Trump’s tariffs on Canadian exports create a complex web of economic challenges. Rather than lowering prices through a domestic oversupply, tariffs increase costs across the board from consumer goods to housing and business operations leading to higher inflation and economic uncertainty. While these changes present significant challenges for Ontario’s workforce and industries, proactive measures by individuals, businesses, and the government can help mitigate the long-term effects.

By understanding these mechanisms and their impacts, stakeholders can better prepare for the changes ahead and work together to build a more resilient economic future.

I set out to write an article on the contradictions and complexities of dual agency (sometimes referred to as double ending a deal) in real estate but in reviewing the different court cases and literature, I soon had so many thoughts on paper that I decided to make it a series.
I’ll start by throwing out a few ideas for consideration and in the next few articles I will dive deeper into each idea one by one.

“If two consenting adults choose to attempt a transaction through one agent…I argue they should bear more responsibility in the outcome.”

Firstly, in researching this, one thing that stood out in all the literature was the singular focus on the actions and responsibilities of the real estate agent with only fleeting enquiries into the behaviour of the parties, both consenting adults. 

As well, I see what appears to be a flaw in the way the law treats dual agency in real estate. There is a major difference between legal disputes and real estate transactions in that when two parties contact lawyers, there is already a dispute between the parties and the lawyers are engaged under the accepted premises of an adversarial process. 

In a real estate transaction, the two parties are generally aiming to conclude a mutually satisfactory transaction (though often each is hoping to come out a little better than the other party). It is usually only after or at the end of the transaction that the situation tends to become adversarial, yet the entire process is legally treated as adversarial from the beginning. If two consenting adults choose to attempt a transaction through one agent, they are doing so in the hopes of gaining some benefit and as long as that consent was given with full and timely disclosure, I argue they should bear more responsibility in the outcome.

This human tendency that aggravates dual agency is, to me, best described in the joke about two horse traders. A fellow comes upon two horse traders arguing. He asks what is wrong and they both say that the other guy ripped them off in a trade of horses. He asks them why they didn’t just trade back then and forget about it. Both reply that they don’t want to get ripped off again. Doesn’t that sum it up so well?

“The added risks involved, in my opinion, more than justify the full commission being paid to the one agent, yet both parties often expect a reduction.”

Oftentimes, one of the parties, usually the buyer, will request their agent to contact the other party on their behalf in the hopes of effecting the transaction without a second Realtor and expecting you, the agent, to work in their best interests against the other party. There are a few reasons for this, however, the hope that they (the buyer) will come out ahead is not the least of them, and this puts the real estate agent in a very unenviable position. Sometimes, if you don’t do it, the buyer will find someone who will. Additionally, the added risks involved, in my opinion, more than justify the full commission being paid to the one agent, yet both parties often expect a reduction.

Given that both parties are often looking for “a deal,” this puts the agent immediately in a seemingly irreconcilable conflict of interest. Usually, the more sophisticated client is the one initiating the process and their hope of garnering a “deal” diminishes the more the agent provides market information to the other party. So, the more work an agent does, the less the chance of a deal, and the greater chance of not getting paid for doing more (and better!) work. The less work an agent does, the greater the risk of legal liability and sanctions.

“Finally, under fiduciary duty, we are expected to place our interests beneath those of our clients.”

At this point, I should add that there is nothing illegal or unethical about seeking a “deal.” This is part of human nature, and there is nothing inherently wrong with it. I say this because this conflict is compounded by the fact that the initiating party is often an active investor, the kind of client an agent needs to thrive. The fact that we are in fiduciary relationships per se (fancy legal way of saying by default), precludes agents from favouring the better client in effecting a deal. 

Finally, under fiduciary duty, we are expected to place our interests beneath those of our clients. I find this a curious statement. I have also seen this worded as we are to place our clients’ interests as paramount. This I have no issue with, but the first statement I do because, as worded, it implies we must diminish our interests. 

This begs the question, how far? I expect a) to be remunerated for my efforts, and b) that that remuneration is fair—and I am not prepared to reduce these expectations. Everyone expects this when they go to work in the morning, but am I to diminish these interests? Why? And how much so? 

Stay tuned for more on these thoughts as we do deep dives into each one individually as we explore the wonderful world of dual agency.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has lowered its key interest rate to 3%, marking a significant shift in the country’s economic landscape. If you’re a homeowner, renter, investor, or just someone concerned about the economy, this decision will have ripple effects on your finances.

So, what does this mean for your mortgage, savings, loans, and everyday expenses? Let’s break it down in simple terms.

1. Lower Mortgage Rates – Good News for Homebuyers

If you’ve been waiting to buy a home, this rate cut could be a golden opportunity.

How does it help?

• Lower borrowing costs: Banks and lenders typically lower their mortgage rates when the Bank of Canada cuts its rate, making homeownership more affordable.
• Increased buying power: With lower interest rates, you may qualify for a larger mortgage, meaning you could afford a better home or get a lower monthly payment.
• Refinancing opportunity: If you already have a mortgage, you might want to check if refinancing at a lower rate could save you money on your monthly payments.

 Tip: If you’re thinking of buying a home, now might be a good time to talk to a mortgage broker and explore your options.

2. Lower Interest on Loans – Car Loans, Credit Cards & Personal Loans

Interest rates don’t just affect mortgages – they also impact:

• Car loans
• Credit cards (some variable-rate ones)
• Personal loans and lines of credit

If you’re planning to finance a car, renovate your home, or consolidate debt, borrowing could become more affordable in the coming months.

 Tip: If you have a variable-rate loan, you might see lower monthly payments soon. If you have a fixed-rate loan, your rate won’t change, but refinancing could be an option.

3. Savings Accounts & Investments – Expect Lower Returns

While lower interest rates help borrowers, they hurt savers. If you have money in a high-interest savings account or GIC, you may see lower returns in the near future.

• Savings accounts will offer lower interest rates, meaning your money won’t grow as quickly.
• GICs (Guaranteed Investment Certificates) may also have lower fixed rates.
• Bonds & Fixed-Income Investments could become less attractive, leading investors to look for other options.

 Tip: If you rely on interest income, now might be a good time to diversify your investments or consider other wealth-building strategies.

4. Renters – Could This Impact You?

If you rent a home, you might not feel the effects immediately, but here’s what could happen:

• Lower mortgage rates could encourage more people to buy homes, reducing rental demand in some areas.
• On the flip side, some landlords with variable-rate mortgages might see lower costs, making it easier for them to keep rent prices stable.
• If the market heats up and home prices start rising again, landlords might use this as an excuse to increase rent in certain regions.

 Tip: If you’re renting and considering buying, this could be a good time to start exploring your options before prices go up.

5. The Bigger Picture – What It Means for Canada’s Economy

The Bank of Canada cuts interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Lower rates encourage borrowing, spending, and investing, which helps:
✔ Businesses invest and expand
✔ Consumers spend more money
✔ The job market stay strong

However, the downside is that too much borrowing could lead to more inflation. The Bank of Canada will monitor the economy carefully to ensure that inflation doesn’t spiral out of control again.

What Should You Do Now?

✅ If you’re looking to buy a home – Consider getting pre-approved for a mortgage to take advantage of lower rates.
✅ If you have debt – Check if refinancing or consolidating your loans could save you money.
✅ If you have savings – Look for better investment options as savings account interest rates decline.
✅ If you rent – Keep an eye on the market and explore whether buying makes sense for you.

This rate cut could be the start of more changes to come in 2025. Staying informed and making smart financial moves now can help you take advantage of these shifts.

 What do you think about the Bank of Canada’s decision? Are you planning to buy a home or refinance? Let us know in the comments!

As 2025 begins, there is greater optimism around the Canadian real estate market, as many experts forecast a rebound driven by lower borrowing costs, pent-up demand, and a more stable economic environment. The projections vary across sources, but most agree on a renewed upward trend in sales and home prices.

Key Drivers of the 2025 Real Estate Outlook

Lower interest rates are the linchpin of the anticipated recovery. BNN Bloomberg reports that the Bank of Canada’s easing monetary policy has already begun to stimulate the market. Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage, points to the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts and their expected stabilization in the latter half of 2025 as pivotal. Soper notes, “When the Bank of Canada reaches neutral rates—neither slowing nor stimulating the economy—investor confidence is likely to surge.”

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) also highlights a combination of factors expected to drive activity, including reduced borrowing costs, pent-up demand, and the traditional surge in spring listings. 

General Optimism for Canadian Real Estate Market Improvements

The CREA forecasts an 8.6% increase in home sales through MLS® Systems in 2025, up from their prior estimate of 6.6%. The national average home price is predicted to rise by 4.7% to $722,221. TD Economics offers a more dramatic forecast, projecting a 15.8% increase in home sales and an 8% rise in average prices. Their analysis credits steady economic growth and the gradual reduction in interest rates. 

Regional Predictions

The CREA predicts recovery to differ across regions. It forecasts that British Columbia and Ontario, with their substantial inventories, will see stronger sales rebounds. In contrast, Alberta and Saskatchewan, with tight supply and relatively affordable prices, are poised for significant price gains. Atlantic Canada and Quebec are expected to experience balanced increases in both sales and prices.

Royal LePage forecasts aggregate home price growth of 6% nationwide, with the highest gains projected in Quebec City (11%), followed by Edmonton and Regina (9%). The Greater Montreal Area, Toronto, and Vancouver are expected to see more moderate increases of 6.5%, 5%, and 4%, respectively.

ReMax anticipates sales growth in 33 of 37 regions, with some areas potentially experiencing sales increases of up to 25%. They also predict a 5% rise in the national average home price, closely mirroring Royal LePage’s outlook.

Cautions

On the other hand, a Reuters poll presents a more cautious perspective, predicting a modest 2.8% rise in prices due to ongoing affordability challenges.  

Affordability remains a critical concern despite optimistic forecasts. Reuters analysts warn that high prices could continue to deter many potential buyers, particularly in markets like Toronto and Vancouver. The CREA also notes potential economic risks tied to evolving trade relations with the United States.

Despite any challenges, many experts seem to agree that 2025 will mark a turning point, with first-time buyers, smaller investors, and institutional players re-entering the market. With new policies and continued population growth driving demand, the Canadian real estate market appears well-positioned for a recovery.

Investor Sentiment and Long-Term Outlook

The enduring appeal of Canadian real estate as a reliable investment is a key factor noted in predictions. Soper emphasizes the historical resilience of home prices, which have shown steady appreciation over time. Improved lending policies, such as expanded eligibility for 30-year amortizations and the removal of stress test requirements for mortgage renewals, are also expected to bolster buyer activity. 

Regardless of predictions, many experts recommend investors remember to take a long-term perspective, rather than trying to time the market.

The Canadian real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a certain amount of optimism. While there is consensus on factors impacting recovery, such as lower interest rates and pent-up demand, predictions vary regarding the extent of price and sales growth. Regional variations, affordability challenges, and potential economic risks will shape the market. However, many foresee a more promising year in Canadian real estate.

More Ontario Realtors now have access to more data as the PropTx MLS database expands to include listings from most boards in the province. 

PropTx, a wholly-owned and for-profit subsidiary of the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), promises members access to a centralized MLS, a long-standing priority among Realtors, according to TRREB CEO John DiMichele. 

“This has been a strategic focus, and through the creation of PropTx, was a key mandate for the organization,” says DiMichele. “The participating boards and associations were essential collaborators, recognizing that working together benefits all Realtors. A unified MLS database ensures consistency and continuity as it matures.”

Participating boards and associations currently have access to the PropTx MLS system, with the final stages of data transition underway. DiMichele explains several enhancements are expected in the first quarter of 2025, including expanded mandatory fields and the integration of pre-populated external data sets. These updates are based on feedback from participating boards and new users of the platform.

Participating boards and associations

The following boards and associations are part of the PropTx MLS collaboration:

• Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (including the former Brampton Real Estate Board)

• Central Lakes Association of Realtors (including Durham, Quinte, Northumberland, Peterborough, and Kawartha Lakes)

• London and St. Thomas Association of Realtors

• Niagara Association of Realtors (NAR)

• Kingston & Area Real Estate Association (KAREA)

• Timmins, Cochrane & Timiskaming District Association of Realtors

• Ottawa Real Estate Board

• Cornwall & District Real Estate Board

• Renfrew County Real Estate Board

• Rideau-St Lawrence Real Estate Board

• Oakville, Milton & District Real Estate Board (OMDREB)

• One Point Association of Realtors (formerly Lakelands, Guelph & District, Huron Perth, and Grey Bruce Owen Sound)

• Woodstock, Ingersoll Tillsonburg & Area Association of Realtors (WITAAR)

• North Bay & Area Realtors Association (NBARA)

DiMichele explains that through PropTx, members of these associations have access to more data than ever before, and that will expand as new features are introduced.

“The move towards a single MLS database creates incredible efficiencies for Realtors, both in the operation of their business as well as in the cost of operating their business,” DiMichele says. “The move towards a single MLS database reduces the need for interboarding MLS listings as well as paying for multiple real estate board and association memberships.”

TRREB’s CEO calls PropTx a for-Realtors-by-Realtors solution, “The long-term strategic goal of PropTx is to continue to offer a range of best-in-class tools, insights, and applications to improve the transaction experience for realtors and the clients they serve efficiently and effectively.”

Impact on ITSO

More boards transitioning to PropTx marks a shift for the Information Technology Systems of Ontario (ITSO), a not-for-profit corporation established in 2020 with the primary goal of creating a unified MLS.

Geoff Halford, ITSO chair, says the organization was initially created to increase access to MLS data through the operation of a regional MLS System when associations were not ready to amalgamate but wanted to share data. Halford says this purpose may no longer be relevant.

Member boards such as KAREA, NAR, OMDREB, NBARA, WITAAR, and OnePoint are leaving or have left ITSO in favour of PropTx.

Halford acknowledges the evolving landscape and its potential impact. “We are proud of the success we had creating a regional system that at its peak brought together 23 real estate associations and more than 24,000 users who had access to data from 29 of the real estate associations in the province, but we also understand that the landscape is quickly changing,” he said, adding  ITSO remains committed to supporting its current member associations, ensuring that the system continues to meet their needs.

“We are disappointed that a solution could not be arranged with TRREB that would have fostered competition in the MLS services market…” Geoff Halford, ITSO chair

ITSO will operate its MLS system for its remaining three member boards, the Barrie & District Association of Realtors (BDAR), Brantford Regional Real Estate Association (BRREA), and Cornerstone Association of Realtors, for the next two years under the current MLS Services Agreement.

“We will be reviewing what is in the best interests of our members and the future of ITSO over the course of the next two years,” says Halford.”There are other MLS Systems in Ontario and in other provinces that operate with far fewer users than ITSO, so we know such a system is viable, but we also understand the political pressure that our remaining members face to solve the problem of fragmented data access.

“We are disappointed that a solution could not be arranged with TRREB that would have fostered competition in the MLS services market and enabled all realtors in the province to access all the MLS data they need in the system of their choice.” 

Halford adds, “It is especially disheartening to see Realtors who formerly used the ITSO system complain on social media about the quality and quantity of listing content they now have access to in their new MLS System, as ITSO and its members prided themselves on building a comprehensive database of detailed and accurate MLS listing content.”

Industry perspectives

Paul Czan, president of the Ottawa Real Estate Board, says the board moved from ITSO  to PropTx last fall.

Czan explains, “This new platform promises a much better experience with more data readily available. Faster communication and smoother transactions, in a sense. Another thing is we’re able to have input on the system.”

OREB’s president has high hopes for PropTx’s impact.  “I think it’s going to be a platform that’s going to bring stability and consistency amongst a bit of a shifting landscape in our industry, meaning that Realtors can be assured that they can have access to the same quality data as their counterparts in all the other regions.”

The housing industry knows this story all too well: prices are soaring and demand (until recently) has been relentless yet projects are stalling. The blame often falls on high land values or developer greed, but the real culprit is clear to anyone in the sector—it’s the staggering cost of delivering new homes.

The numbers are sobering. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) says that we need to build 5.8 million new homes by 2030 to restore affordability to 2004 levels. If successful, that would mean that a newly built 1,000-square-foot, two-bedroom condo in downtown Vancouver would sell for $620,000 instead of the $1.5-million that it currently does. 

But here’s the reality: even if land were free and developers waived their profits, that condo would still cost more than $1-million to build. In Toronto, it’s a similar story, with hard costs alone pushing the price beyond $800,000.

By the numbers

Here’s how the numbers break down for that $1.5-million Vancouver condo:

• $294,000 (20 per cent) is for land acquisition

• $490,000 (32 per cent) is for hard costs (i.e. labour, building materials)

• $102,000 (7 per cent) is for soft costs (i.e. architectural designs, legal fees)

• $92,000 (6 per cent) is for marketing and realtor commissions

• $77,000 (5 per cent) is for finance charges and loan interest

• $267,000 (18 per cent) is for government taxes and fees

• $178,000 (12 per cent) is the profit margin required by banks to provide financing

(Numbers rounded for clarity)

Climbing costs lead to stalled projects

This isn’t news to anyone in the industry. What’s alarming is how quickly these costs are climbing, forcing projects to stall or fail altogether. In Vancouver and Surrey, B.C. alone, 58,000 homes are paused because the cost of delivering them exceeds what buyers can pay.

So, if the affordability crisis is really a cost-of-delivery crisis, what can be done? While macroeconomic factors like interest rates and global material costs are beyond our control, governments hold significant levers to reduce costs and unlock stalled projects.

Three areas of reform stand out:  

1. Reduce financing costs for housing projects

• Allow development cost charges (DCCs) and municipal levies to be paid at the end of a project, rather than upfront. This would reduce financing costs and free up critical capital.

• Exempt DCCs from GST/PST/HST and land transfer tax calculations—double taxation only inflates prices unnecessarily.

• Expand municipal surety bond programs to replace capital-intensive letters of credit, unlocking billions in tied-up equity.

2. Provide stability for developers 

• End the constant churn of new regulations. Introduce in-stream protections so projects already in process aren’t derailed by sudden policy changes or fee hikes.

• Expand the pre-sale period in British Columbia—currently, developers have only 12 months to meet pre-sale requirements for projects to move ahead, resulting in many projects not launching, or failing to meet requirements. This holds housing projects back that would otherwise be able to move forward 

• Establish a nationwide policy moratorium to provide the sector with a stable planning environment for the next five to 10 years.

3. Implement fairer ways to fund infrastructure and amenities

• Create a municipal services corporation for water and wastewater services so that regional districts can borrow and amortize infrastructure costs over time instead of relying solely on development cost charges.

While these changes require government leadership, the industry has a role to play. Developers need to speak with a unified voice, push for sensible reforms, and share the data that demonstrates the urgent need for change. Transparent conversations about what it actually takes to bring homes to market will help shift public perception and rebuild trust in the sector.

CMHC’s affordability target isn’t impossible—but it demands bold action. The time for incremental adjustments is over. If we want affordability to return to Canadian housing markets, we need governments and industry to tackle the true crisis: the soaring cost of delivering homes.

The most recent employment statistics from Stats Canada showed overall growth in December 2024, with most industry sectors and provinces experiencing job growth. 

Employment Growth Overall

Canada saw an increase of 91,000 jobs in December 2024, marking a rise in full-time employment that boosted the overall employment rate to 60.8%. 

Employment Growth by Sector

The biggest gains were seen in educational services, which increased by 1.1%, and transportation and warehousing, with a notable 1.6% increase in this sector.

Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing saw a 1.1% increase; the accommodation and food services and construction sectors also saw growth.

Source: Stats Canada

Regional Breakdown

Canada’s provinces showed varying patterns in job growth and unemployment. 

Alberta

The province recorded a 1.4% employment increase in December and an impressive 4.0% year-over-year growth. Despite unemployment still sitting at 6.7%, Alberta’s employment figures point to a potentially growing labour market.

Ontario

Employment growth was more modest in Ontario, with a 0.3% monthly increase, resulting in 2.6% annual growth. Despite the modest growth in job numbers, the unemployment rate remained steady at 7.5%. 

British Columbia

The province saw a 0.5% employment increase in December; however, the unemployment rate also rose to 6.0%. 

Other Provincial Employment Growth

Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan showed positive trends in employment, with 1.4% and 0.7% increases, respectively. 

Wage Growth

Average hourly wages rose by 3.8% year-over-year in December 2024, reaching $35.77. While this shows an increase, it also reflects a deceleration compared to increases (not seasonally adjusted) of 4.1% in November and 4.9% in October. The December wage growth was the slowest since May 2022, after a peak of 5.8% in November 2022. Growth remained around 5% throughout 2023 and into the first 10 months of 2024.

Impact of Export-Driven Employment

Employment in industries dependent on U.S. demand accounted for 8.8% of total employment in Canada in 2024, totalling about 1.8 million jobs. 

Industries with the highest proportion of employment dependent on US demand included: 

• Oil and gas extraction (74.3%)
• Pipeline transportation (71.7%)
• Primary metal manufacturing (60.8%)
• Transportation equipment manufacturing (56.0%).

Wages in US-demand-linked sectors were above average, with workers earning $37.24 per hour.

The Stats Canada employment data for December 2024 showed notable trends. Alberta led in employment growth, but other provinces showed positive signs as well. Wage growth may have slowed, but did continue. The specific industries showing growth can also be of interest. Overall, Canada’s employment landscape reflects a diverse array of sectoral and regional growth, but with some potential for optimism.